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New Trade Theory |
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New Trade TheoryModels of trade that, especially in the 1980s, incorporated aspects of imperfect competition, increasing returns, and product differentiation into both general equilibrium and partial equilibrium models of trade and trade policy. Many contributed to this literature, but the most prominent was Krugman, starting with Krugman (1979).Similar MatchesShort interest theoryShort interest theoryThe theory that a large interest in short positions in stocks will precede a rise in the market prices, because the short positions must eventually be covered by purchases of the stock. Dow theoryDow theoryIn 1887 Charles Dow (as in 'The Dow Jones') developed two stock market 'averages':The Industrial Average, made up of 12 blue chip stocksThe Rail Average, made up of 20 railroad companiesIn 1900 he wrote a series of articles noting that the direction of prices in each average appeared to be based on a set of rules. Collectively, these became known as The Dow Theory and the key precepts are summarised below.Dow TheoryA share price reflects everything that is known about a stockThis means that all the positives and all the negatives about a company are assumed to be known by the market and built into the share price. Implicitly, no stocks are undervalued, because the market has 'perfect' knowledge.At any given time, there are 3 trends unfolding in the stock market:The primary trend lasting for more than one yearThe secondary trend which is a corrective reaction to the primary trend and usually lasts form one to three monthsThe tertiary or minor trend which is a short term movement lasting from one day to three weeks.Primary trends have three phasesAggressive buying by well informed investors ahead of economic recovery while most investors are still bearish about the marketGeneral buying by the majority of investors as company earnings pick up and economic conditions improveHeadlong rush into stocks by everybody, as companies report record earnings. Meanwhile, the well informed investors are starting to sell even though prices may be rising.Volume Confirms the TrendRallies in the market are accompanied by increasing volume, and falls with decreasing volume.A Trend Continues Until a Reversal SignalIf a primary trend is confirmed by the movement of both averages it will continue until there is a definite reversal signal. So once a primary trend has started the chances are it will continue, but once it has been around for a while the chances of continuation are less. Elliott Wave TheoryElliott Wave TheoryTechnical market timing strategy that predicts price movements on the basis of historical price wave patterns and their underlying psychological motives. Robert Prechter is a famous Elliott Wave theorist. Agency theoryAgency theoryThe analysis of principal-agent relationships, in which one person, an agent, acts on behalf of another person, a principal. Cushion theoryCushion theoryThe theory that a stock with many short positions taken in it will rise, because these positions must be covered by the stock. Further SuggestionsConduit theoryPreferred habitat theory Presidential election cycle theory Complexity Theory Local expectations theory efficient market theory Modern portfolio theory Product cycle theory Odd lot theory capital market theory Dow dividend theory Dow Theory Efficient markets theory(EMT) Game Theory Theory of second best Dependency Theory Normal backwardation theory Bicycle Theory Greater fool theory Labor theory of value Bubble theory Portfolio theory Game theory Trade theory Purchasing power parity theory |
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